Year 2 - Evaluation of the Complex Stand Simulation Model SORTIE-ND for Sub-Boreal Forests of Northern BC
Project Reference Number: 2008-11
Project Status: Complete
Led by: Dave Coates, PhD, Research Silviculturist, Ministry of Forests and Range, Smithers
Research Assistance: Marius Boldor and other Bulkley Valley Research Centre Personnel; Irene Ronalds, Smithers; Bachrach Communications, Smithers
Funded by: Forest Investment Account - Forest Science Program (Y09-2187)
Forest managers in northern British Columbia require models that accurately predict timber yield of complex, managed and unmanaged stands (e.g., mountain pine beetle (MPB) damaged stands and mixedwood strategies in boreal forests). This proposal addresses the need for evaluation of SORTIE-ND, a spatially-explicit forest dynamics model, in sub-boreal forests and assessment of the model as a timber analysis management tool especially for stands impacted by the MPB.
Current Year Objectives for the sub-boreal spruce zone:
- To evaluate SORTIE-ND in terms of its logic and conceptual structure.
- To undertake a sensitivity analysis of the model, specific to the parameterization of the model for sub-boreal spruce forests, to provide information on the model’s sensitivity to uncertainty about the parameter estimates and to indicate the parameters with greatest influence on predictions.
- To test the influence of varying levels of model starting condition detail (e.g., tree lists with increasing detail) on model prediction outcomes.
- Determine availability and accumulate independent datasets that can be used to compare with model predictions.